Bitcoin trader say BTC headed toward $125K by New Year’s Even based on ‘Bayesian probability’

Bitcoin (BTC) price entered a strong price discovery phase for the first time since December 2020, after its weekly chart closed above $80,000. BTC’s bullish structure has transpired from a short-term to a long-term outlook, and multiple analysts believe that an assortment of six-figure price targets will be attained sooner than later.

Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by New Year’s Eve

Peter Brandt, a popular market analyst, highlighted that Bitcoin tends to repeat its bullish price action trends when it decides to “mark up.” The trader addressed BTC’s current move above previous ATH levels and suggested a $125,000 price target based on Bayesian probability.

Bayesian probability, or Bayes’ theorem, determines the conditional probability of a future event based on past data sets. In layman’s terms, it helps traders handle uncertain price ranges by setting targets based on how the asset behaved in similar past situations.

Brandt explained that BTC’s run in Q1 2024 can be emulated in Q4 2024 based on the above theorem, potentially leading to a $125,000 high before New Year’s Eve 2024.

Meanwhile, Titan of Crypto, a Bitcoin proponent and trader, indicated that BTC‘s bullish pennant target is $158,000. The trader mentioned BTC’s weekly chart golden cross completion as a key factor for the bullish continuation, keeping $100,000 as the first target for the second bull phase in 2024.

Related: Bitcoin price hits $80K for the first time — New ‘inflation-adjusted’ all-time high

Open Bitcoin CME gap between $77,800 to $80,600

With Bitcoin price rising 5+% over the weekend, a CME gap opened up between $77,800 and $80,600 on the daily chart on Nov. 11. This is the first CME gap since August 2024 on the 1-day time period, and CME gaps on the daily chart have a strong likelihood of getting filled.

Thus, if conditions change, Bitcoin could drop to $77,800 or less over the next few days. Scient, an anonymous market analyst, also indicated that BTC could be close to a local top. Scient added,

“Anticipating the price to halt around $84-85k followed by a correction/consolidation for 7-10 days before we resume up again.”

However, it is important to note BTC’s previous market behavior regarding the CME gap. Under similar conditions, a small CME gap opened in 2023 as well, after BTC breached a multi month resistance level before exhibiting a yearly high in Q4.

As observed in the chart, the CME gap was formed under a higher high outlook and wasn’t filled until January 2025, when BTC prices rallied another 23% from the CME gap.

If Bitcoin follows the above, the crypto asset might continue to ascend higher, reaching a new all-time high above $100,000.

Related: $80K BTC price chases gold — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.