A crypto strategist who nailed the start of the current Bitcoin bull market is outlining what he thinks is the worst possible path for BTC.
Pseudonymous analyst DonAlt tells his 657,500 followers on the social media platform X that it is within the realm of possibility for BTC to repeat its 2021 mid-bull cycle collapse when it lost over 50% of its value in just three months.
While Bitcoin eventually recovered all losses by November 2021, BTC failed to mount rallies above $69,000 before abruptly ending its bull market.
If Bitcoin follows in the footsteps of its 2021 bull cycle, it would suggest that BTC will recover after a 50% drawdown and put in a new all-time high at slightly above $110,000 before giving up most of its gains as it enters bear territory.
“To me, worst case [is] we’re here in the cycle. Excited to see how it plays out.”
Alternatively, DonAlt says the best-case scenario for Bitcoin is that it moves away from its halving-based four-year cycle. Bitcoin’s halving is an event that slashes BTC miner reward in half, triggering an imbalance between supply and demand that has previously coincided with rallies.
Without a four-year cycle, DonAlt appears to suggest that BTC will witness a steady uptrend without the need to time market tops and avoid brutal bear winters.
“This cycle is so chill.
Just take it easy.
If the market is up? Great you make money. If the market is down? It is what it is, maybe it will go up again.
Prior cycles were a constant struggle having to sell tops and bottoms, for this one, I’ve just chosen blissful complacency.”
Looking at Bitcoin’s current state, the analyst says it is possible for Bitcoin to recover support at $90,000 before this week expires as BTC continues to bounce after briefly trading below $80,000.
“No way they can push it back above $90,000 before the weekly close, right?”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $86,351, up over 2% on the day.
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