Can 3-month Bitcoin RSI highs counter bearish BTC price ‘seasonality?’

Bitcoin (BTC) demands a breakout as a key leading indicator reaches its highest levels since January.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows the relative strength index (RSI) hinting at more BTC price gains next.

Bitcoin RSI breakout has days to “full confirmation”

Bitcoin bull runs traditionally begin with telltale RSI signals, and on daily timeframes, conditions are ripe for a classic BTC price rebound.

As BTC/USD made lower lows over the past month, RSI began trending in the opposite direction, setting higher lows and attempting a type of bullish divergence.

More recently, the daily RSI broke above the 50 midpoint, only to successfully retest it as support from above before making new multimonth highs.

Among those monitoring the topic is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

“Bitcoin has successfully retested red as support & the Daily RSI Higher Low continues to maintain itself as well,” he commented alongside a chart in an X post this weekend.

“Growing signs of a maturing Bullish Divergence here, with price just below the key Price Downtrend (blue).”

Rekt Capital also reported that RSI trends suggested a long-term BTC price floor at around $70,000.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst Kevin Svenson captured similarly promising signals on weekly RSI this week.

“Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators,” he told X followers. 

“6 Days until full confirmation.”

As Cointelegraph reported, another key breakout currently under the microscope for Bitcoin market participants involves a downward-sloping trendline in place since January’s all-time highs.

April BTC price performance far below median

Countering the bullish anticipation is an analysis focusing on the troublesome macroeconomic conditions in which Bitcoin now finds itself.

Related: Bitcoin price metric that called 2020 bull run says $69K new bottom

The ongoing US trade war and risk-asset rout make for an unlikely influx of capital to BTC, which has closely followed stocks while gold sets repeated all-time highs.

In his latest forecast for April, network economist Timothy Peterson saw little reason to celebrate.

Uploading a chart of the median yearly price path for BTC/USD, he concluded that this year was a firm underperformer.

“Half the days are above the blue line and half are below it. This April is obviously a ‘below’ month,” part of accompanying commentary read.

“That is almost certainly not going to change, given the level of interest rates and other risk factors at work in the market and economy.”

Other perspectives likewise see a lackluster April before bullish undercurrents catch up with Bitcoin, these in the form of record global M2 money supply and a weakening US dollar index (DXY).

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.