Arthur Hayes: ‘If They Go 50, That Will Be a Nuclear Catastrophe for Financial Markets’

So, the question is whether they’re going to do 25 basis points or 50 basis points. I, at a high level, think that they should not be raising rates. I believe that the U.S. economy is quite strong. If you’ve seen the GDP prints over the last eight or nine quarters, it’s been consistent growth. The U.S. government continues to spend an insane amount of money, which is keeping economic growth at a very fast pace. And, obviously, that helps with the re-election chances or election chances of Kamala Harris and her running mate which I think is the goal of the current Democratic administration. So, the Fed cutting rates, when you have massive government spending, you have inflation that’s above their target – I think it’s a mistake. Inflation is going to accelerate into the fourth quarter if they decide to continue cutting rates. And, I think that the response is going to be if the markets start to falter, they’re just going to do more of it and they’re going to make the problem even worse.