Bitcoin (BTC) staged a sharp rebound after US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for non-retaliating countries, reigniting bullish momentum and raising hopes for a potential surge toward the $100,000 mark.
On April 9, BTC/USD surged by approximately 9%, reversing most of the losses it incurred earlier in the week, to retest $83,000. In doing so, the pair came closer to validating a falling wedge pattern that has been forming on its daily chart since December 2024.
A falling wedge pattern forms when the price trends lower inside a range defined by two converging, descending trendlines.
In a perfect scenario, the setup resolves when the price breaks decisively above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines.
BTC/USD daily price chart ft. falling wedge breakout setup. Source: TradingView
As of April 9, Bitcoin’s price was confined within the falling wedge range while eyeing a breakout above its upper trendline at around $83,000. If it is confirmed, BTC’s main upside target by June could be around $100,000.
Conversely, a rejection from the upper trendline could raise the likelihood of Bitcoin retreating deeper within the wedge pattern, potentially sliding toward the apex near $71,100.
Source: Merlijn The Trader
If a breakout occurs after testing the $71,100 level, the most conservative upside target for BTC could still be as high as $91,500.
Onchain data supports $100,000 Bitcoin outlook
Bitcoin’s rebound appears just before testing a critical onchain support zone between $65,000 and $71,000, reinforcing the cryptocurrency’s bullish outlook toward the 100,000 mark.
Notably, the $65,000-71,000 range is based on two important Bitcoin metrics—active realized price ($71,000) and the true market mean ($65,000).
Bitcoin short-term onchain cost basis bands. Source: Glassnode
These metrics estimate the average price at which current, active investors bought their Bitcoin. They filter out coins that haven’t moved in a long time or are likely lost, giving a relatively accurate picture of the cost basis for those still participating in the market.
In the past, Bitcoin has spent about half the time trading above this price range and half below, making it a good indicator of whether the market is feeling positive or negative, according to Glassnode analysts.
“We now have confluence across several onchain price models, highlighting the $65k to $71k price range as a critical area of interest for the bulls to establish long-term support,” they wrote in a recent weekly analysis, adding:
“Should price trade meaningfully below this range, a super-majority of active investors would be underwater on their holdings, with likely negative impacts on aggregate sentiment to follow.”
Related: Bitcoin has ‘fully decoupled’ despite tariff turmoil, says Adam Back
Bitcoin’s worst-case scenario is a decline toward $50,000
Breaking below the $65,000-71,000 range could worsen Bitcoin’s probability of retesting $100,000 anytime soon. Such declines would also lead to the price breaking below its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).
BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
The 50-week EMA—near $77,760 as of April 9—has historically acted as a dynamic support during bull markets and a resistance during bear markets, making it a crucial trend-defining level.
Losing this support could open the door for a steeper pullback toward the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $50,000. Previous breakdowns below the 50-week EMA have resulted in similar declines, namely during the 2021-2022 and 2019-2020 bear cycles.
A rebound, on the other hand, raises the likelihood of a $100,000 retest.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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