Closely followed quant analyst PlanB believes that Bitcoin (BTC) can reach six figures before the end of 2024.
In a new strategy session, the on-chain analyst tells his 157,000 YouTube subscribers that based on prior history, Bitcoin’s price is likely to double the current value to restore BTC miners’ revenue losses due to the April halving.
“What’s next for 2024?
It is inevitable that we reach $100,000, in my opinion, because miner revenue has to recover. Mining revenue, because of the halving, did halve. All the miners, the entire industry, has seen its revenue drop by 50% and it has to recover.
Usually, the last three halvings, it did recover within four to eight months. So that’s well within this year, 2024. And the only way for mining revenue to recover is the price doubles. So estimating from current price of $60,000, we should be well above $100,000 this year.”
PlanB also says his stock-to-flow model, which compares the amount of a commodity in circulation divided by the amount produced every year, suggests that BTC will hit a price target of $500,000 within the next four years.
“I updated the [stock-to-flow] model, parameters did not change much. The 2024-2028 target is still around $500,000 on average.
Also note that the error always goes down after the halving. So there is a halving, the model value goes up. And of course, it takes some time, the Bitcoin price has a lag to catch up with the model value. Every halving it’s the same. It will also be true this halving in my opinion.
So, we see the error already going down. It will go down again because the price will not be $500,000, of course, in May. It will slowly over the months go into that model price…
2025, I think the top will be then. Because historically, the top of the bull market has been after the halving, about one and a half years after the halving. So that brings us in 2025. And the big question, of course, is will the price follow diminishing returns, and a price around $200,000 for the top will be in line with diminishing returns; or will price, indeed, follow the stock-to-flow model again and will there be exponential returns again?
You know my answer. I think stock-to-flow is still valid. I think we will have exponential returns at least until 50% adoption and we’re now at somewhere between 1% and 10%. So far away from that 50% adoption. I think exponential returns are what we’re going to see.”
Bitcoin is trading for $62,868 at time of writing, up 6.5% in the last 24 hours.
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