Popular macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden believes that the current Bitcoin (BTC) correction is similar to the one witnessed in March 2024 based on one key on-chain metric.
In a new interview on The Your Life! Your Terms! YouTube channel, Alden says she’s keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, an on-chain indicator that helps assess whether BTC is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market cap (market value) to the average price at which all coins were last moved (realized value).
The macro guru explains that during the initial stages of a bull market, Bitcoin’s market cap tends to soar, while its average cost basis lags as early investors hold on to their coins in anticipation of more rallies, resulting in a higher MVRV value.
Alden says that when the MVRV soars to extreme levels, it drives more long-term investors to unload their holdings, which can signal the start of a multi-year bear market.
For now, the macro expert says the metric is still within its usual bull market range, leading her to believe that BTC can still soar to greater heights.
“When you see more and more coins at those higher price levels, it helps lower that ratio because basically the average cost basis is catching up to some extent with that wild explosion in market cap.
So what I generally point out is that we’ve not really seen extremes yet this year. Back in March 2024, when we broke out to new all-time highs for the first time in a couple of years, Bitcoin hit $73,000. That metric got a little bit euphoric, but nothing like a multi-year top historically has been. And so we saw a seven-month consolidation, but nothing really worse than that.
Similarly, when Bitcoin hit $108,000 more recently, that metric got a little bit overdone, but again, it wasn’t those multi-year dislocations that we normally see.
For me, I’m more on the lookout for probabilities of breaking out versus breaking down. And so my view is that there’s still a higher probability of breaking up and to say that, I don’t think we’re set for a multi-year bear market until we probably reach higher prices.”
At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $81,357.
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