Crypto Daybook Americas: Retail Demand for BTC Provides Firm Underpinning in Weaker Crypto Market

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin and most major cryptocurrencies are weaker after Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a proxy for institutional activity, denied reports of listing futures tied to XRP and SOL. Traditional markets are also holding their breath for the expected Bank of Japan interest-rate increase on Friday.

Despite BTC’s continued range play above $100,000, retail demand remains robust. Glassnode’s shrimp-Crab cohort, which includes addresses holding up to 10 BTC, have absorbed 1.9 times the newly mined supply last month, totaling over 25,600 BTC. Meanwhile, long-term holders have slowed their spending and profit-taking activities, indicating a cautious, but firm, commitment to their investments.

Still, dropping below $100,000 might prove costly. According to Wintermute’s OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis, that would “frame Monday’s inauguration as a sell-the-news event and the narrative could switch pretty quickly.”

Reports suggest the number of whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP has surged to an all-time high of 2,083, signaling increased accumulation and confidence in its future performance.

In the world of innovation, chatter around Bitcoin Synths is gaining traction on X. These synthetic assets allow users to benefit from bitcoin’s price movements without actually owning the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Synths can be traded or used as collateral in lending protocols, avoiding the complexities associated with wrapped tokens and specialized bridges.

Ethereum layer-2 protocols are also making headlines with record transaction volumes, even as concerns about their capacity nearing limits persist.

On the macroeconomic front, recent data from the Labor Department shows that the “all tenant rent” index, an indicator of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose at a slower pace last quarter. The data suggest that recent worries about inflation may be overdone and the Fed could pivot away from its hawkish forecast, which would be a positive sign for risk assets. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Jan. 23, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor releases the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report for the week ended Jan. 18.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 215K vs. Prev. 217K.
  • Jan. 23, 10:00 a.m.: The National Association of Realtors releases December 2024 U.S. Existing Home Sales report.
    • Existing Home Sales Est. 4.16M vs. Prev. 4.15M.
    • Existing Home Sales MoM Prev. 4.8%.
  • Jan. 23, 4:30 p.m.: The Fed releases the H.4.1 report, the central bank balance sheet, for the week ended Jan. 22.
    • Total Reserves Prev. $6.83T.
  • Jan. 23, 6:30 p.m.: Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications releases December 2024’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
    • Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.6%.
    • Core Inflation Rate YoY Est. 3% vs. Prev. 2.7%.
    • Inflation Rate YoY Prev. 2.9%.
  • Jan. 23, 10:00 p.m.: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases Statement on Monetary Policy.
    • Interest Rate Decision Est. 0.5% vs. Prev. 0.25%.

Token Events

• Governance votes & calls
  • Morpho DAO is discussing reducing incentives by 30% across all networks and assets.
  • Yearn DAO is discussing funding and endorsing a subDAO called Bearn to focus on building and launching products on Berachain.
  • Frax DAO is discussing a $5 million investment in World Liberty Financial (WLFI), the crypto project backed by the family of U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • Jan. 23: Livepeer (LPT) is hosting a Core Dev call.
  • Jan. 24: Arbitrum BoLD’s activation vote deadline. BoLD allows anyone to participate in validation and defend against malicious claims to an Arbitrum chain’s state.
  • Jan. 24: Hedera (HBAR) is hosting a community call at 11 a.m.
• Unlocks
  • Jan. 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 2.32% of circulating supply worth $52.9 million.
  • Jan. 31: Jupiter (JUP) to unlock 41.5% of circulating supply worth $626 million.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 23: Sky (SKY) is being listed on Bitget.
  • Jan. 23: Animecoin (ANIME) is launching, with claims starting at 8 a.m. The token will be listed on multiple exchanges including Binance, OKX and KuCoin.

Conferences:

Token Talk

By Francisco Rodrigues

• Azuki, a non-fungible token (NFT) collection, is introducing its Animecoin (ANIME) today on Ethereum and Arbitrum. The token was announced on Jan. 13.
• An airdrop will encompass Azuki NFT holders, Hyperliquid HYPE stakes, some Arbitrum ecosystem participants and Kaito yappers.
• It will also include certain anime communities and BNB token holders who, between Jan. 17 and Jan. 20, subscribed to Simple Earn with their tokens on Binance.
• The debut builds on a growing trend of NFT collections launching their own tokens, a trend that started in 2021 when Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) launched ApeCoin.
• Other examples include DeGods’ DUST and Pudgy Penguins’ PENGU tokens, which have a $1.6 billion market capitalization.
• Other signs indicate the NFT market is heating up, with Nansen recently pointing out that a Crypto Punk was sold for 170 ETH (around $540,000) while an Azuki was sold for 165 ETH. The Azuki NFT had been bought a month before for 105 ETH.

Derivatives Positioning

• The cumulative volume delta indicator reveals that major cryptocurrencies, with the exception of TON, have experienced net selling pressure in the perpetual futures markets over the past 24 hours.
• Block flows on Deribit and Paradigm featured long positions in short-dated BTC puts at $100K, $95K and $70K. An entity bought ETH put at $2.9K.
• Front-end BTC and ETH calls now traded at par with puts.

Market Movements:

• BTC is down 4.1 % from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday to $102,020 (24hrs: -2.71%)
• ETH is down 3.85% at $3,206.18 (24hrs: -2.83%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 3.61% to 3,799.21 (24hrs: -3.58%)
• CESR Composite Ether Staking Rate is down 15 bps to 3.15%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0019% (-2.08% annualized) on OKX

• DXY is unchanged at 108.25
• Gold is down 0.35% at $2,761.10/oz
• Silver is down 0.73% to $30.57/oz
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.79% at 39,958.87
• Hang Seng closed down 0.4% at 19,700.56
• FTSE is unchanged at 8,538.7
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchangedat 5203.6
• DJIA closed +0.3% to 44,156.73
• S&P 500 closed +0.61% at 6,086.37
• Nasdaq closed +1.28% at 20,009.34
• S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.12% at 25,311.5
• S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.21% at 2,297.32
• U.S. 10-year Treasury is up 3 bps at 4.59%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.19% to 6,109.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.56% to 21,876.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchaged at 44,384.00

Bitcoin Stats:

• BTC Dominance: 58.59
• Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.031
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 781 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $58.9
• Total Fees: 8.5 BTC/ $876,410
• CME Futures Open Interest: 188,396 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 37.1 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 10.56%

Technical Analysis

• BTC’s retreat from Monday’s high is teasing a formation of a double top bearish reversal pattern.
• A move below the horizontal line would confirm the pattern, potentially bringing more chart-led sellers to the market.

Crypto Equities

• MicroStrategy (MSTR): closed on Wednesday at $377.31 (-3.03%), down 1.89% at $370.19 in pre-market.
• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $295.85 (+0.56%), down 2.59% at $288.18 in pre-market.
• Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$32.81 (+4.99%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $19.69 (+0.66%), down 2.54% at $19.19 in pre-market.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.14 (+3.14%), down 1.75% at $12.91 in pre-market.
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.97 (+4.58%%), down 1.63% at $15.71 in pre-market.
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.14 (+1.64%), down 2.51% at $10.86 in pre-market.
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $25.53 (+2.24%), up 2.58% at $28.27 in pre-market.
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $62.11 (-4.36%), up 2% at $64.90 in pre-market.
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $41.00 (+2.5%), down 2.07% at $40.15 in pre-market.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs:

• Daily net flow: $248.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $39.23 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.161 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: $70.7 million
• Cumulative net flows: $2.81 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 3.648 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Flows

Chart of the Day

• The chart shows a spike in the number of active addresses on Solana.
• Addresses holding USDC led the growth as TRUMP token frenzy gripped the market over the weekend.

While You Were Sleeping

In the Ether