At the moment, bitcoin traders appear to be taking the shift lightly, as BTC prices are up 3.93% intraday. In our view, few U.S. data points exist between now and the July 27 meeting that are likely to affect probabilities. Investors, however, are likely to monitor Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims data. The current consensus estimate for initial claims is 240,000 versus actual claims of 244,000 for the prior week. We expect that higher-than-expected jobless claims will deter the Federal Reserve from increasing rates more than 0.75%.
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