Crypto users betting on the outcome of the snap election to determine the next Prime Minister of Canada appear to be favoring a Liberal Party victory as residents head to cast their votes.
As of April 28, cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket gave current Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney a 79% chance of defeating Conservative Party candidate Pierre Poilievre in the race for the country’s next PM. Data from the platform showed users had poured more than $75 million into bets surrounding the race, predicting a Poilievre or Carney victory.
The odds suggested by the platform, as well as those from many polls, show a nearly complete reversal of fortunes between the two candidates after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned in January. Trudeau and, by association, many in the Liberal Party, faced criticism over the handling of Canada’s housing crisis and questions about how he would face US President Donald Trump’s then-proposed tariffs.
Following Trudeau’s resignation, Trump stepped up rhetoric disparaging Canada, repeatedly referring to the country as the US’s “51st state” and Trudeau as its “governor.” The US President also imposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada in March. The policies seem to have led to increasing anti-Trump sentiment in Canada, with many residents booing the US national anthem at hockey games and making comparisons between the president and Poilievre.
The election is not really focused on crypto
In contrast to the 2024 US election, in which Trump often made statements suggesting he would enact policies favorable to the crypto industry, neither Carney nor Poilievre seemed to have made digital assets central to their campaigns.
Similar to Trump, Poilievre made a social media post in 2022 suggesting he would make Canada the “blockchain capital of the world” if elected leader of his party. This statement was made months before Trump began claiming he would make the US the “crypto capital of the world.” However, the Conservative candidate has largely stayed silent on digital assets in 2022 following the market downturn spurred by the collapses of Terra and FTX.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk — also a Trump adviser — and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong made social media posts in January suggesting support for Poilievre. Both men are Canadian citizens and likely eligible to vote in the election.
Related: Why Pierre Poilievre may not be Canada’s crypto savior
In contrast, Carney was critical of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies while serving as governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, calling them “poor short-term stores of value.” After leaving the bank, he gave a speech with the Bank for International Settlements supporting a central bank currency (CBDC).
Despite the prime minister’s Liberal Party credentials and its association with Trudeau’s efforts to crack down on truckers blocking streets and disrupting travel in a 2022 protest, polls show Carney is favored to defeat Poilievre. Polls suggested the prime minister’s opposition to Trump’s tariffs and threats to annex Canada using “economic force” played a role in boosting Carney’s chances.
The results of the snap Canadian election are expected to be announced by April 30.
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